第三季度投资报告 | 通胀时代物价疯涨,英国房价再创新高

1117 天前

后疫情时代,英国经济已开始触底反弹,这一点在如今的房产市场中表现尤为明显。今后的经济、房市的走势如何,爱家总结分析了多家权威数据,与各位投资人分享。
我们先来看看经济活动。


1、经济回暖,通胀率创9年新高

根据本月英国国家统计局(ONS)公布的英国最新的通胀和物价数据,8月份通胀率飙升至3.2%,创下9年来新高,远超预期,月增幅 1.2%,是1997年有纪录以来最大增幅。



 
英国物价的飞速上涨体现在食品、衣服、交通、房租等与老百姓息息相关费用上面。
国家统计局表示,食品价格是导致通胀上升的重要原因。去年政府为鼓励刺激餐饮业推出的半价吃饭计划,使得整个餐饮行业大幅打折。如今折扣取消,物价就涨上来了。



解封后经济活动回暖,导致原材料和劳动力成本上涨,因此薪资、商品、房产等价格都出现了一定程度的上涨。
值得注意的是住房和家庭服务支出大幅上涨0.65个百分点,也反映出住房成本和租金正在上涨。


2、就业恢复,职位缺口创纪录

ONS数据显示,截至8月份的3个月中,英国职位空缺数量首次超过100万(2001年有纪录以来)。



数据显示,5-7月,英国整体失业率降至4.7%,8月的就业人数已经回到了疫情前的水平。
英国最大的雇主组织CBI表示,英国从建筑业、制造业到零售业、酒店业的劳动力严重短缺问题可能会持续两年以上。
许多企业警告说,需要将更高工资带来的额外成本转嫁给消费者,特别是在建筑和物流行业。


总的来说,解封的同时也解放了英国老百姓的消费欲,经济超预期复苏,大量现金快速涌入市场。
央行预计通胀率将会在今年年底升至4%,市场普遍预测高通胀率将使得英国央行明年加息。
当前英国的基准利率为0.1%,为历史最低点。加息将利好英镑汇率,但会增加购房者的贷款成本,需要各位购房者关注。
后疫情时代,在通胀的情况下保持自己的储蓄不被贬值,购置房产也是一个好途径。



3、房价普涨,房市火爆

Halifax的最新房价指数显示,8月份英国房价的年增长率达到7.1%,平均房价涨至£262,954,达到历史新高!与2020年6月房地产市场解封时相比,房价高出了2.36万英镑,上涨了9.9%。



房价月涨幅为0.7%,也就是说一个月之间,英国房价平均上涨了£1,789。
如今英国房产市场的需求比历年来都要大,根据HMRC的统计数据显示,2021年6月份登记销售量为213,120套,这也是在2005年以来销量最大的记录。

房产市场火爆的原因

英国一系列政策推动着英国房产价格上涨,例如之前的印花税假期,最多可以为购房者节省15,000英镑。此外,Help-to-Buy计划的延长以及历史低点的0.1%基准利率都有利于房产市场,很多人选择此时入市。
供需不平衡也是原因之一。国家住房联合会(NHF)统计数据显示英国每年新建房在24万套左右,但如今每年新房需求量是34万套,加上 脱欧导致建筑工人缺乏,疫情也引起很多建筑工程放缓,都将不断加剧房产供需不足的问题。



4、出租市场

贷款机构ShawbrookBank最新出炉的关于疫情对于房东的影响的调查报告表明,在过去的一年中,英国个人出租房产的总价值整体上升5.8%,平均上升了5.6%,其中,西北部、威尔士、苏格兰的涨幅最为显著,分别上涨了10.7%、11%、9.5%,伦敦只有2.5%。



虽然出租房屋总体价值有所增长,数量却有所下降。Chestertons的数据显示:截至2021年8月一年中,中介的租户需求增加了55%,出租房的供应量降低了58%。出租房的数量减少带来的是租户之间的激烈竞争。



5、曼彻斯特

根据ONS和土地局(Land Registry)数据显示,截至2021年6月一年内,曼彻斯特所在的西北部地区房价上涨了18.6%,全国最高。



究其房价涨幅位居全国首位的原因,一方面得益于英国整体经济的复苏,另一方面得益于英国西北部振兴计划的推动作用,人才和商业开始从伦敦向曼彻斯特地区流动,为当地经济发展带来了强劲动力,高端房产的需求量不断攀升,就需要更多房产供应。
英国新房的建设速度在疫情影响下相对较慢,大量高端人才来到这里目前只能租住在老旧的房产中,这也是曼城的高端豪华公寓价格快速上涨的原因。
有大量曼彻斯特的早期投资者已经从中盈利颇丰,如今曼城还处于发展起步阶段,未来要比肩伦敦还需要多年时间,在这一过程中房产投资市场仍然会非常活跃。


6、预测

Halifax的负责人Russell Galley分析:疫情改变了人们对住房的需求,大家普遍需要更大空间、绿化更好的房子。虽然印花税限时减免政策接近尾声,但这种趋势仍会持续下去。宏观方面,经济大环境回暖,就业率上升,消费者信心恢复到疫情前的水平。再加上待售房产供应紧张,这些都将支撑房价的继续上涨。
此外Nationwide也预测:如果房价保持目前增长水平,到年底涨幅将为8%-9%。



Savills预测,今年房产销量将比疫情前五年的年平均水平高出35%。预计到2025年年底,英国房价将上涨21.5%。贷款利率低、家庭储蓄高、待售房供应少、需求变化等因素,都将继续支撑房价上涨。



写在最后


疫情改变了很多人的居住方式,随着疫苗和人们对疫情的逐渐适应,英国经济回暖,生活逐步恢复正常,有人回到市中心居住,有人搬离伦敦,再加上留学生返校,租房、购房市场都非常火爆,最近也是我们爱家置业非常忙碌的一段时间。
通常英国的夏季是英国购房高潮,但今日已至秋分,虽然印花税减免的优惠已经减少,但房价的加速增长仍超市场预期,房价、租金继续稳步上涨。需要各位投资人持续关注。

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